Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Bowling, Johnnie.

Steve Waugh Named Greatest

Steve Waugh has been voted captain of Australia's greatest ever one-day cricket side. (ABC Sport)

The team, as voted by all of Australia's one-day cricketers, is:

Adam Gilchrist
Mark Waugh
Ricky Ponting
Dean Jones
Steve Waugh (Captain)
Michael Bevan
Andrew Symonds
Shane Warne
Brett Lee
Dennis Lillee
Glenn McGrath
Greg Chappell (12th man).

John Howard didn't make the list, you'll notice. Interesting.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Bennelong


The current Wikipedia entry for Bennelong is badly out of date. It makes no mention of the recent news that Steve Waugh is going to stand to become the seat's next elected representative.


Wikipedia on Bennelong:
The Division of Bennelong is an Australian Electoral Division in New South Wales. The division was created in 1949 and is named for Bennelong, an Aboriginal man befriended by the first Governor of New South Wales, Arthur Phillip. Bennelong is based in Northern Sydney, including the suburbs of Eastwood, Epping and Ryde, and has been held by the Liberal Party since its creation. In that time it has had only two members. The current member, John Howard, has held the seat for 32 years and has been Prime Minister of Australia since 1996.

Interestingly, however, the two-party preferred vote for the Liberals actually declined by 3.4% in the 2004 election, contrary to a strong national trend to the coalition (and a particularly strong one to the Coalition in outer-suburban metropolitan seats), making Bennelong a marginal seat, with a margin of just 4.3%. Demographic trends, and the phenomenon of socially liberal middle-class "doctor's wives" becoming increasingly opposed to the social policies of the Coalition, are the likely causes of the swing. The latter was particularly relevant in 2004 as he was challenged by a strong anti-Iraq campaign, centred around a former intelligence officer, Andrew Wilkie who contested the election on behalf of the Australian Greens.

Bennelong is currently regarded as a key marginal seat. If Howard were to contest Bennelong at the 2007 election and lose, it would be only the second time in Australian history that a sitting Prime Minister has been defeated in his own electorate, the other being Stanley Bruce. The proposed redistribution will push this margin further into Labor territory, due to the inclusion of predominantly working class and public housing suburb of Ermington into its boundaries.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Malcolm MacKerras on Bennelong

Yesterday Malcolm MacKerras, the Steve Waugh of psephology, said that John Winston Howard will lose Bennelong at the 2007 federal election.

The defeat of the Howard government will be generally predicted. In that circumstance what are Bennelong electors to do? They could say to themselves: "Let us return Howard in Bennelong to show our gratitude to him. Of course, we know he will, upon the defeat of his government, immediately resign his seat and cause a by-election which Labor will win."

Alternatively, they could (more sensibly) say to themselves: "We know the Howard Government will be defeated. Why do we not kick Howard out of Bennelong also? That would save the cost of a by-election. Let us save that cost and save the Liberal Party the embarrassment of that by-election loss".


Howard will lose Bennelong, Liberals will lose the poll: MacKerras