Malcolm MacKerras on Bennelong

Yesterday Malcolm MacKerras, the Steve Waugh of psephology, said that John Winston Howard will lose Bennelong at the 2007 federal election.

The defeat of the Howard government will be generally predicted. In that circumstance what are Bennelong electors to do? They could say to themselves: "Let us return Howard in Bennelong to show our gratitude to him. Of course, we know he will, upon the defeat of his government, immediately resign his seat and cause a by-election which Labor will win."

Alternatively, they could (more sensibly) say to themselves: "We know the Howard Government will be defeated. Why do we not kick Howard out of Bennelong also? That would save the cost of a by-election. Let us save that cost and save the Liberal Party the embarrassment of that by-election loss".

Howard will lose Bennelong, Liberals will lose the poll: MacKerras